Does digg predict the future?
I’m really not that strongly anti-Apple, but I keep coming across these prominent stories on digg about how people are switching away from Apple. The latest of which is “Switching from iPhone to Android”. Choice quote “Android is looking good nowadays, and Apple’s creepy corporate culture is wearing me down.”
Just in case you’ve not ready any of my other posts on the topic, I predicted Android will rule the world because it’s open and therefore it can run on anything. In much the same way that VHS ultimately crushed Betamax, (or the Phillips screw beat Robertson’s design), (a perceived) technical superiority is no match for proliferation. Devices running Android will starting appearing out of the woodwork while the next Apple gadget has to wait for Apple.
But I digress; the topic of this post is actually digg’s ability to predict the future. For a long time I thought digg wasn’t anything special, just another site rehashing stories from other sites. But then the 2008 US presidential election came along.
Long before his name was ever mentioned in main stream media, while everyone was still talking about Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama was generating buzz on digg. And against all odds he actually won! From nowhere to the first black president, and all predicted on digg. Was it just a fluke? I don’t think so.
Since then I’ve noticed that I read about new movies on digg long long before anyone else has even heard of them. A recent example is Avitar. It was getting “buzz” on digg before anyone even knew what it was about and now it’s the most successful box office movie of all time. Another example was “The Dark Knight”. Heath Ledger was getting “buzz” as the Joker long before he died. His death may have propelled the movie even higher, but I have a feeling that it was going to be a smash hit even if he hadn’t passed away.
However, there is one thing to be cautious of, does digg reflect the true feeling of the people, or is it just the result of clever marketing planting stories? Or a better question, does it matter? If all we care about is predicting the future, then whether or not the buzz is real or artificially generated, the result is the same.
So is digg predicting the future downfall of the iPhone, or is Google just planting all those positive Android postings? Either way, if recent digg history is any indication, Apple should be worried.
